New York YankeesGerrit Cole
ATJul 28, 7:40 PM EDT
Chicago White SoxAnthony Kay
Rate FieldScheduled86% data · Grade B
EDGEBOARD PRIMARY LEANOver 8
DraftKings -103 · playable through -152
Champion62.8%Ensemble46.7%Confidence47/100
ALL PRIMARY MARKETS
Model and price intelligence
Moneyline
New York Yankees Moneyline
Research LeanBest priceDraftKings -126
Playable through-117
Champion56.4%
Research ensemble52.2%
Sportsbook55.8%
Champion edge+0.6 ptsConfidence47/100AgreementWeak
DraftKings -126FanDuel -130
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 52.2% compared with the sportsbook's 55.8% break-even rate. Model agreement is weak, with 2 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices New York Yankees Moneyline at 56.4% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 55.8%, a 0.6-point model edge with 1.1% estimated EV. Recent form favors New York Yankees: 6-4 over the last 10 versus Chicago White Sox's 5-5 over the last 10. The pitching staff comparison supports the side: New York Yankees carries a 3.38 ERA versus Chicago White Sox's 4.08.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices New York Yankees Moneyline at 56.4% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 55.8%, a 0.6-point model edge with 1.1% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 52.2% versus a 55.8% sportsbook break-even rate. 2 of 3 included model families support the side with weak agreement.
+ Recent form favors New York Yankees: 6-4 over the last 10 versus Chicago White Sox's 5-5 over the last 10.
+ The pitching staff comparison supports the side: New York Yankees carries a 3.38 ERA versus Chicago White Sox's 4.08.
+ Away Market Implied Probability (56.1%) supplied approximately 3.47 points of positive model influence.
+ Home Market Implied Probability (48.3%) supplied approximately 3.46 points of positive model influence.
+ Sportsbook market position (-7.8%) supplied approximately 3.46 points of positive model influence.
Reasons for caution
– Model-family estimates range from 34.0% to 75.2%, indicating weak agreement.
– At least one batting order was still projected rather than confirmed.
– The snapshot contained 15 active roster-status alert(s).
– The underlying model remains research-only and has not passed the official live-validation gate.
– Roster-availability advantage (-5) supplied approximately 9.92 points of opposing model influence.
– Team ERA advantage (-0.70) supplied approximately 2.12 points of opposing model influence.
Model-family view
Availability Context34.0% · 37% weightBaseline Core50.5% · 32% weightFull Context75.2% · 31% weight2 of 3 families support the displayed selection. Range 34.0%–75.2%.Confidence Score 2.0
Data Quality17.2/2086% frozen pregame completenessModel Agreement5/20Weak family agreementRolling Stability9.5/1563/100 average member stabilityEstimated Edge0/15-3.5 percentage-point research edgeCalibration History6.3/1063/100 rolling stabilityMarket Alignment4.5/10Ensemble compared with the market-anchor familyKey Player Certainty1.8/5At least one key starter remains projectedPrice And Line Stability3/52 approved sportsbook source(s) in the frozen snapshotRun Line
New York Yankees -1.5
Research LeanBest priceFanDuel +130
Playable through-1.5 · +125
Champion46.9%
Research ensemble41.5%
Sportsbook43.5%
Champion edge+3.4 ptsConfidence47/100AgreementWeak
FanDuel +130DraftKings +129
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 41.5% compared with the sportsbook's 43.5% break-even rate. Model agreement is weak, with 1 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices New York Yankees -1.5 at 46.9% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 43.5%, a 3.4-point model edge with 7.9% estimated EV. Recent form favors New York Yankees: 6-4 over the last 10 versus Chicago White Sox's 5-5 over the last 10. The pitching staff comparison supports the side: New York Yankees carries a 3.38 ERA versus Chicago White Sox's 4.08.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices New York Yankees -1.5 at 46.9% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 43.5%, a 3.4-point model edge with 7.9% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 41.5% versus a 43.5% sportsbook break-even rate. 1 of 3 included model families support the side with weak agreement.
+ Recent form favors New York Yankees: 6-4 over the last 10 versus Chicago White Sox's 5-5 over the last 10.
+ The pitching staff comparison supports the side: New York Yankees carries a 3.38 ERA versus Chicago White Sox's 4.08.
+ Away team WHIP (1.18) supplied approximately 4.00 points of positive model influence.
Best priceDraftKings -103
Playable through+8 · -152
Champion62.8%
Research ensemble46.7%
Sportsbook50.7%
Champion edge+12.1 ptsConfidence47/100AgreementWeak
DraftKings -103FanDuel -104
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 46.7% compared with the sportsbook's 50.7% break-even rate. Model agreement is weak, with 1 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices Over 8 at 62.8% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 50.7%, a 12.1-point model edge with 23.8% estimated EV. The two offenses have combined for 8.70 recent runs per game, while the listed total is 8. The two pitching staffs enter with ERAs of 3.38 and 4.08.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices Over 8 at 62.8% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 50.7%, a 12.1-point model edge with 23.8% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 46.7% versus a 50.7% sportsbook break-even rate. 1 of 3 included model families support the side with weak agreement.
+ The two offenses have combined for 8.70 recent runs per game, while the listed total is 8.
+ The two pitching staffs enter with ERAs of 3.38 and 4.08.
+ Team ERA advantage (-0.70) supplied approximately 3.13 points of positive model influence.
+ Home Moneyline Movement (-4.00) supplied approximately 0.09 points of positive model influence.
+ Recent form and market alignment supplied approximately 0.05 points of positive model influence.
MATCHUP INTELLIGENCE
Evidence behind Over 8
TeamChicago White SoxRecent record: 5-5 over the last 105.20 runs scored and 4.50 allowed per game
TeamNew York YankeesRecent record: 6-4 over the last 103.50 runs scored and 3.80 allowed per game
TeamChicago White SoxSeason OPS: 0.714TeamNew York YankeesSeason OPS: 0.661TeamChicago White SoxTeam ERA: 4.08WHIP 1.31
TeamNew York YankeesTeam ERA: 3.38WHIP 1.18
TeamNew York Yankees + Chicago White SoxRecent combined scoring: 8.70 runs/gameMarket total 8; combined recent allowance 8.30
PlayerAnthony KayChicago White Sox starting pitcher: LHPConfirmed
PlayerGerrit ColeNew York Yankees starting pitcher: RHPConfirmed
PlayerChicago White SoxLineup status: 0 players; projected Feature contributions and family probabilities are available inside each market’s full analysis.MARKET MOVEMENT
FanDuel and DraftKings
DraftKings · Batter HitsUnder +0.5
+112 → +15887 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter HitsOver +0.5
-147 → -21387 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter Total BasesOver +1.5
+102 → +12025 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter Total BasesUnder +1.5
-135 → -19125 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher OutsOver +17.5
-107 → -1365 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher OutsUnder +17.5
-123 → +1025 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher StrikeoutsOver +6.5
+107 → +1095 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher StrikeoutsUnder +6.5
-137 → -1395 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher StrikeoutsOver +4.5
-152 → -1305 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher StrikeoutsUnder +4.5
+119 → +1025 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter RbisUnder +0.5
-407 → -55736 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTNo qualifying props for this game
The automatic prop workflow will populate this section when FanDuel and DraftKings offer complete two-sided markets.
Prop probabilities are FanDuel/DraftKings no-vig market estimates, not trained individual-player projections.
New York Yankees
Projected
Chicago White Sox
Projected
Research and audit boundariesThe champion still controls selection ranking and suggested units. The research ensemble does not enable official publishing or place wagers. Weather and unsupported advanced metrics remain visibly unconnected rather than estimated.
Generated Jul 28, 2026, 4:56 PM EDT · 8_7_1_game_intelligence_stabilized7C-B PREGAME MONITOR
No frozen recommendation
EdgeBoard has no frozen model recommendation for this game.
ADMIN-ONLY POSTGAME AUDITPrivate grading and CLV are protected
Administrator login is required to view suggested units, profit and exact-line closing value.