Boston Red SoxJake Bennett
ATJul 28, 9:40 PM EDT
AthleticsGage Jump
Sutter Health ParkScheduled86% data · Grade B
EDGEBOARD PRIMARY LEANBoston Red Sox Moneyline
FanDuel -146 · playable through -163
Champion64.5%Ensemble38.7%Confidence47/100
ALL PRIMARY MARKETS
Model and price intelligence
Moneyline
Boston Red Sox Moneyline
Research LeanBest priceFanDuel -146
Playable through-163
Champion64.5%
Research ensemble38.7%
Sportsbook59.3%
Champion edge+5.2 ptsConfidence47/100AgreementWeak
FanDuel -146DraftKings -150
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 38.7% compared with the sportsbook's 59.3% break-even rate. Model agreement is weak, with 1 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices Boston Red Sox Moneyline at 64.5% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 59.3%, a 5.2-point model edge with 8.8% estimated EV. Recent form favors Boston Red Sox: 8-2 over the last 10 versus Athletics's 3-7 over the last 10. Boston Red Sox owns the better recent run differential at +1.10 per game versus -2.10.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices Boston Red Sox Moneyline at 64.5% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 59.3%, a 5.2-point model edge with 8.8% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 38.7% versus a 59.3% sportsbook break-even rate. 1 of 3 included model families support the side with weak agreement.
+ Recent form favors Boston Red Sox: 8-2 over the last 10 versus Athletics's 3-7 over the last 10.
+ Boston Red Sox owns the better recent run differential at +1.10 per game versus -2.10.
+ The pitching staff comparison supports the side: Boston Red Sox carries a 3.56 ERA versus Athletics's 5.39.
+ Home Market Implied Probability (44.6%) supplied approximately 5.54 points of positive model influence.
+ Sportsbook market position (-15.0%) supplied approximately 5.50 points of positive model influence.
Reasons for caution
– Model-family estimates range from 29.9% to 57.0%, indicating weak agreement.
– At least one batting order was still projected rather than confirmed.
– The snapshot contained 21 active roster-status alert(s).
– The underlying model remains research-only and has not passed the official live-validation gate.
– Home Season Slg (0.468) supplied approximately 11.22 points of opposing model influence.
– Away Starter Left Handed (+1.00) supplied approximately 7.46 points of opposing model influence.
Model-family view
Availability Context30.3% · 37% weightBaseline Core57.0% · 32% weightFull Context29.9% · 31% weight1 of 3 families support the displayed selection. Range 29.9%–57.0%.Confidence Score 2.0
Data Quality17.2/2086% frozen pregame completenessModel Agreement5/20Weak family agreementRolling Stability9.5/1563/100 average member stabilityEstimated Edge0/15-20.6 percentage-point research edgeCalibration History6.3/1063/100 rolling stabilityMarket Alignment4.5/10Ensemble compared with the market-anchor familyKey Player Certainty1.8/5At least one key starter remains projectedPrice And Line Stability3/52 approved sportsbook source(s) in the frozen snapshotRun Line
Boston Red Sox -1.5
PassBest priceFanDuel +106
Playable through-1.5 · +121
Champion47.7%
Research ensemble24.0%
Sportsbook48.5%
Champion edge-0.9 ptsConfidence47/100AgreementWeak
FanDuel +106DraftKings +103
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 24.0% compared with the sportsbook's 48.5% break-even rate. Model agreement is weak, with 0 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices Boston Red Sox -1.5 at 47.7% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 48.5%, a -0.9-point model edge with -1.8% estimated EV. Recent form favors Boston Red Sox: 8-2 over the last 10 versus Athletics's 3-7 over the last 10. Boston Red Sox owns the better recent run differential at +1.10 per game versus -2.10.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices Boston Red Sox -1.5 at 47.7% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 48.5%, a -0.9-point model edge with -1.8% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 24.0% versus a 48.5% sportsbook break-even rate. 0 of 3 included model families support the side with weak agreement.
+ Recent form favors Boston Red Sox: 8-2 over the last 10 versus Athletics's 3-7 over the last 10.
+ Boston Red Sox owns the better recent run differential at +1.10 per game versus -2.10.
+ The pitching staff comparison supports the side: Boston Red Sox carries a 3.56 ERA versus Athletics's 5.39.
+ Home Season Obp (0.348) supplied approximately 13.71 points of positive model influence.
Best priceFanDuel -115
Playable through+10 · -102
Champion52.9%
Research ensemble76.5%
Sportsbook53.5%
Champion edge-0.6 ptsConfidence64/100AgreementWeak
FanDuel -115DraftKings -115
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 76.5% compared with the sportsbook's 53.5% break-even rate. Model agreement is weak, with 3 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices Under 10 at 52.9% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 53.5%, a -0.6-point model edge with -1.0% estimated EV. The two offenses have combined for 9.50 recent runs per game, while the listed total is 10. The two pitching staffs enter with ERAs of 3.56 and 5.39.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices Under 10 at 52.9% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 53.5%, a -0.6-point model edge with -1.0% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 76.5% versus a 53.5% sportsbook break-even rate. 3 of 3 included model families support the side with weak agreement.
+ The two offenses have combined for 9.50 recent runs per game, while the listed total is 10.
+ The two pitching staffs enter with ERAs of 3.56 and 5.39.
+ Season OPS advantage (0.133) supplied approximately 5.81 points of positive model influence.
+ Offense and pitching interaction supplied approximately 2.15 points of positive model influence.
+ FanDuel/DraftKings coverage (+2) supplied approximately 2.03 points of positive model influence.
MATCHUP INTELLIGENCE
Evidence behind Boston Red Sox Moneyline
TeamAthleticsRecent record: 3-7 over the last 104.80 runs scored and 6.90 allowed per game
TeamBoston Red SoxRecent record: 8-2 over the last 104.70 runs scored and 3.60 allowed per game
TeamAthleticsSeason OPS: 0.816TeamBoston Red SoxSeason OPS: 0.683TeamAthleticsTeam ERA: 5.39WHIP 1.49
TeamBoston Red SoxTeam ERA: 3.56WHIP 1.22
PlayerGage JumpAthletics starting pitcher: LHPConfirmed
PlayerJake BennettBoston Red Sox starting pitcher: LHPConfirmed
PlayerAthleticsLineup status: 0 players; projectedPlayerBoston Red SoxLineup status: 0 players; projected Feature contributions and family probabilities are available inside each market’s full analysis.MARKET MOVEMENT
FanDuel and DraftKings
DraftKings · Batter HitsUnder +0.5
+153 → +16465 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter HitsOver +0.5
-198 → -22165 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter Total BasesOver +1.5
-120 → +15465 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter Total BasesUnder +1.5
-110 → -20765 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher OutsOver +16.5
-107 → -1215 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher OutsUnder +16.5
-124 → -1095 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher StrikeoutsOver +5.5
+102 → +1055 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher StrikeoutsUnder +5.5
-130 → -1345 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher StrikeoutsOver +3.5
-150 → -1585 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher StrikeoutsUnder +3.5
+118 → +1245 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter HitsOver +1.5
+149 → +19925 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTNo qualifying props for this game
The automatic prop workflow will populate this section when FanDuel and DraftKings offer complete two-sided markets.
Prop probabilities are FanDuel/DraftKings no-vig market estimates, not trained individual-player projections.
Boston Red Sox
Projected
Athletics
Projected
Research and audit boundariesThe champion still controls selection ranking and suggested units. The research ensemble does not enable official publishing or place wagers. Weather and unsupported advanced metrics remain visibly unconnected rather than estimated.
Generated Jul 28, 2026, 5:46 PM EDT · 8_7_1_game_intelligence_stabilized7C-B PREGAME MONITOR
No frozen recommendation
EdgeBoard has no frozen model recommendation for this game.
ADMIN-ONLY POSTGAME AUDITPrivate grading and CLV are protected
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