Colorado RockiesMichael Lorenzen
ATJul 28, 9:40 PM EDT
San Diego PadresMichael King
Petco ParkScheduled86% data · Grade B
EDGEBOARD PRIMARY LEANColorado Rockies +1.5
FanDuel -126 · playable through -164
Champion64.7%Ensemble72.1%Confidence70/100
ALL PRIMARY MARKETS
Model and price intelligence
Moneyline
Colorado Rockies Moneyline
Research LeanBest priceDraftKings +177
Playable through+196
Champion36.3%
Research ensemble44.4%
Sportsbook36.1%
Champion edge+0.2 ptsConfidence62/100AgreementWeak
DraftKings +177FanDuel +168
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 44.4% compared with the sportsbook's 36.1% break-even rate. Model agreement is weak, with 1 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices Colorado Rockies Moneyline at 36.3% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 36.1%, a 0.2-point model edge with 0.6% estimated EV. Recent form favors Colorado Rockies: 3-7 over the last 10 versus San Diego Padres's 5-5 over the last 10. The season offense comparison also leans Colorado Rockies, with a 0.843 OPS against San Diego Padres's 0.728.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices Colorado Rockies Moneyline at 36.3% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 36.1%, a 0.2-point model edge with 0.6% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 44.4% versus a 36.1% sportsbook break-even rate. 1 of 3 included model families support the side with weak agreement.
+ Recent form favors Colorado Rockies: 3-7 over the last 10 versus San Diego Padres's 5-5 over the last 10.
+ The season offense comparison also leans Colorado Rockies, with a 0.843 OPS against San Diego Padres's 0.728.
+ Team ERA advantage (1.25) supplied approximately 2.97 points of positive model influence.
+ Away Rest Days (+2.3 days) supplied approximately 2.80 points of positive model influence.
+ Away Season Obp (0.351) supplied approximately 2.70 points of positive model influence.
Reasons for caution
– Model-family estimates range from 27.0% to 57.9%, indicating weak agreement.
– At least one batting order was still projected rather than confirmed.
– The snapshot contained 20 active roster-status alert(s).
– The underlying model remains research-only and has not passed the official live-validation gate.
– Home Market Implied Probability (67.6%) supplied approximately 4.46 points of opposing model influence.
– Sportsbook market position (30.9%) supplied approximately 4.40 points of opposing model influence.
Model-family view
Availability Context57.9% · 37% weightBaseline Core46.0% · 32% weightFull Context27.0% · 31% weight1 of 3 families support the displayed selection. Range 27.0%–57.9%.Confidence Score 2.0
Data Quality17.2/2086% frozen pregame completenessModel Agreement5/20Weak family agreementRolling Stability9.5/1563/100 average member stabilityEstimated Edge15/15+8.3 percentage-point research edgeCalibration History6.3/1063/100 rolling stabilityMarket Alignment4.5/10Ensemble compared with the market-anchor familyKey Player Certainty1.8/5At least one key starter remains projectedPrice And Line Stability3/52 approved sportsbook source(s) in the frozen snapshotRun Line
Colorado Rockies +1.5
Research LeanBest priceFanDuel -126
Playable through+1.5 · -164
Champion64.7%
Research ensemble72.1%
Sportsbook55.8%
Champion edge+8.9 ptsConfidence70/100AgreementModerate
FanDuel -126DraftKings -126
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 72.1% compared with the sportsbook's 55.8% break-even rate. Model agreement is moderate, with 3 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices Colorado Rockies +1.5 at 64.7% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 55.8%, a 8.9-point model edge with 16.0% estimated EV. Recent form favors Colorado Rockies: 3-7 over the last 10 versus San Diego Padres's 5-5 over the last 10. The season offense comparison also leans Colorado Rockies, with a 0.843 OPS against San Diego Padres's 0.728.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices Colorado Rockies +1.5 at 64.7% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 55.8%, a 8.9-point model edge with 16.0% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 72.1% versus a 55.8% sportsbook break-even rate. 3 of 3 included model families support the side with moderate agreement.
+ Recent form favors Colorado Rockies: 3-7 over the last 10 versus San Diego Padres's 5-5 over the last 10.
+ The season offense comparison also leans Colorado Rockies, with a 0.843 OPS against San Diego Padres's 0.728.
+ Away Season Slg (0.492) supplied approximately 8.40 points of positive model influence.
Best priceDraftKings -116
Playable through+8 · -104
Champion53.5%
Research ensemble56.5%
Sportsbook53.7%
Champion edge-0.2 ptsConfidence68/100AgreementStrong
DraftKings -116
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 56.5% compared with the sportsbook's 53.7% break-even rate. Model agreement is strong, with 3 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices Over 8 at 53.5% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 53.7%, a -0.2-point model edge with -0.3% estimated EV. The two offenses have combined for 10.50 recent runs per game, while the listed total is 8. The two pitching staffs enter with ERAs of 5.50 and 4.25.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices Over 8 at 53.5% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 53.7%, a -0.2-point model edge with -0.3% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 56.5% versus a 53.7% sportsbook break-even rate. 3 of 3 included model families support the side with strong agreement.
+ The two offenses have combined for 10.50 recent runs per game, while the listed total is 8.
+ The two pitching staffs enter with ERAs of 5.50 and 4.25.
+ Season OPS advantage (-0.115) supplied approximately 6.56 points of positive model influence.
+ Sportsbook market position (30.9%) supplied approximately 4.91 points of positive model influence.
+ Recent win-rate advantage (20.0%) supplied approximately 1.17 points of positive model influence.
MATCHUP INTELLIGENCE
Evidence behind Colorado Rockies +1.5
TeamSan Diego PadresRecent record: 5-5 over the last 106.30 runs scored and 4.10 allowed per game
TeamColorado RockiesRecent record: 3-7 over the last 104.20 runs scored and 6.50 allowed per game
TeamSan Diego PadresSeason OPS: 0.728TeamColorado RockiesSeason OPS: 0.843TeamSan Diego PadresTeam ERA: 4.25WHIP 1.34
TeamColorado RockiesTeam ERA: 5.50WHIP 1.52
PlayerMichael KingSan Diego Padres starting pitcher: RHPConfirmed
PlayerMichael LorenzenColorado Rockies starting pitcher: RHPConfirmed
PlayerSan Diego PadresLineup status: 0 players; projectedPlayerColorado RockiesLineup status: 0 players; projected Feature contributions and family probabilities are available inside each market’s full analysis.MARKET MOVEMENT
FanDuel and DraftKings
FanDuel · Pitcher StrikeoutsOver +5.5
+108 → +1124 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTFanDuel · Pitcher StrikeoutsUnder +5.5
-138 → -1424 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTFanDuel · Pitcher StrikeoutsOver +3.5
-128 → -1184 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTFanDuel · Pitcher StrikeoutsUnder +3.5
+100 → -1084 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter HitsOver +0.5
-209 → -101135 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter HitsUnder +0.5
+156 → -131135 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter HitsOver +1.5
+177 → +1979 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter HitsUnder +1.5
-240 → -2679 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher OutsOver +15.5
-126 → -1138 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher OutsUnder +15.5
-105 → -1188 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher StrikeoutsOver +5.5
-102 → +1088 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTNo qualifying props for this game
The automatic prop workflow will populate this section when FanDuel and DraftKings offer complete two-sided markets.
Prop probabilities are FanDuel/DraftKings no-vig market estimates, not trained individual-player projections.
Colorado Rockies
Projected
San Diego Padres
Projected
Research and audit boundariesThe champion still controls selection ranking and suggested units. The research ensemble does not enable official publishing or place wagers. Weather and unsupported advanced metrics remain visibly unconnected rather than estimated.
Generated Jul 28, 2026, 5:47 PM EDT · 8_7_1_game_intelligence_stabilized7C-B PREGAME MONITOR
No frozen recommendation
EdgeBoard has no frozen model recommendation for this game.
ADMIN-ONLY POSTGAME AUDITPrivate grading and CLV are protected
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