Seattle MarinersLuis Castillo
ATJul 28, 10:10 PM EDT
Los Angeles DodgersStarter TBD
UNIQLO Field at Dodger StadiumScheduled69% data · Grade C
EDGEBOARD PRIMARY LEANSeattle Mariners Moneyline
FanDuel +160 · playable through +125
Champion46.9%Ensemble28.3%Confidence44/100
ALL PRIMARY MARKETS
Model and price intelligence
Moneyline
Seattle Mariners Moneyline
Research LeanBest priceFanDuel +160
Playable through+125
Champion46.9%
Research ensemble28.3%
Sportsbook38.5%
Champion edge+8.4 ptsConfidence44/100AgreementWeak
FanDuel +160DraftKings +158
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 28.3% compared with the sportsbook's 38.5% break-even rate. Model agreement is weak, with 0 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices Seattle Mariners Moneyline at 46.9% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 38.5%, a 8.4-point model edge with 21.9% estimated EV. Recent form favors Seattle Mariners: 4-6 over the last 10 versus Los Angeles Dodgers's 6-4 over the last 10. The season offense comparison also leans Seattle Mariners, with a 0.674 OPS against Los Angeles Dodgers's 0.652.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices Seattle Mariners Moneyline at 46.9% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 38.5%, a 8.4-point model edge with 21.9% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 28.3% versus a 38.5% sportsbook break-even rate. 0 of 3 included model families support the side with weak agreement.
+ Recent form favors Seattle Mariners: 4-6 over the last 10 versus Los Angeles Dodgers's 6-4 over the last 10.
+ The season offense comparison also leans Seattle Mariners, with a 0.674 OPS against Los Angeles Dodgers's 0.652.
+ Home Rest Days (+2.4 days) supplied approximately 1.62 points of positive model influence.
+ Home Season Slg (0.364) supplied approximately 1.19 points of positive model influence.
+ Home team ERA (3.55) supplied approximately 1.02 points of positive model influence.
Reasons for caution
– Model-family estimates range from 6.0% to 47.3%, indicating weak agreement.
– Both starting pitchers were not yet marked confirmed in the locked pregame snapshot.
– At least one batting order was still projected rather than confirmed.
– The snapshot contained 18 active roster-status alert(s).
– Pregame data completeness was 69%, so some context was unavailable.
– Roster-availability advantage (-4) supplied approximately 5.41 points of opposing model influence.
Model-family view
Availability Context30.9% · 37% weightBaseline Core47.3% · 32% weightFull Context6.0% · 31% weight0 of 3 families support the displayed selection. Range 6.0%–47.3%.Confidence Score 2.0
Data Quality13.9/2069% frozen pregame completenessModel Agreement5/20Weak family agreementRolling Stability9.5/1563/100 average member stabilityEstimated Edge0/15-10.2 percentage-point research edgeCalibration History6.3/1063/100 rolling stabilityMarket Alignment4.5/10Ensemble compared with the market-anchor familyKey Player Certainty1.8/5At least one key starter remains projectedPrice And Line Stability3/52 approved sportsbook source(s) in the frozen snapshotRun Line
Seattle Mariners +1.5
Research LeanBest priceDraftKings -126
Playable through+1.5 · -144
Champion61.5%
Research ensemble55.0%
Sportsbook55.8%
Champion edge+5.7 ptsConfidence52/100AgreementModerate
DraftKings -126FanDuel -128
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 55.0% compared with the sportsbook's 55.8% break-even rate. Model agreement is moderate, with 3 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices Seattle Mariners +1.5 at 61.5% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 55.8%, a 5.7-point model edge with 10.3% estimated EV. Recent form favors Seattle Mariners: 4-6 over the last 10 versus Los Angeles Dodgers's 6-4 over the last 10. The season offense comparison also leans Seattle Mariners, with a 0.674 OPS against Los Angeles Dodgers's 0.652.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices Seattle Mariners +1.5 at 61.5% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 55.8%, a 5.7-point model edge with 10.3% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 55.0% versus a 55.8% sportsbook break-even rate. 3 of 3 included model families support the side with moderate agreement.
+ Recent form favors Seattle Mariners: 4-6 over the last 10 versus Los Angeles Dodgers's 6-4 over the last 10.
+ The season offense comparison also leans Seattle Mariners, with a 0.674 OPS against Los Angeles Dodgers's 0.652.
+ Home team ERA (3.55) supplied approximately 8.40 points of positive model influence.
Total
Over 9.5
Research LeanBest priceFanDuel +100
Playable through+9.5 · -116
Champion56.2%
Research ensemble54.0%
Sportsbook50.0%
Champion edge+6.2 ptsConfidence46/100AgreementWeak
FanDuel +100DraftKings +100
View full market analysis
EdgeBoard's weighted research ensemble estimates 54.0% compared with the sportsbook's 50.0% break-even rate. Model agreement is weak, with 1 of 3 families supporting the selection. EdgeBoard prices Over 9.5 at 56.2% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 50.0%, a 6.2-point model edge with 12.3% estimated EV. The two offenses have combined for 8.00 recent runs per game, while the listed total is 9.5. The two pitching staffs enter with ERAs of 3.59 and 3.55.
Why EdgeBoard leans this way
+ EdgeBoard prices Over 9.5 at 56.2% versus the sportsbook break-even rate of 50.0%, a 6.2-point model edge with 12.3% estimated EV.
+ The weighted research ensemble prices this selection at 54.0% versus a 50.0% sportsbook break-even rate. 1 of 3 included model families support the side with weak agreement.
+ The two offenses have combined for 8.00 recent runs per game, while the listed total is 9.5.
+ The two pitching staffs enter with ERAs of 3.59 and 3.55.
+ Rest advantage (+1.0 days) supplied approximately 3.63 points of positive model influence.
+ Sportsbook market position (27.1%) supplied approximately 3.52 points of positive model influence.
+ Recent form and rest interaction supplied approximately 1.32 points of positive model influence.
MATCHUP INTELLIGENCE
Evidence behind Seattle Mariners Moneyline
TeamLos Angeles DodgersRecent record: 6-4 over the last 104.30 runs scored and 3.90 allowed per game
TeamSeattle MarinersRecent record: 4-6 over the last 103.70 runs scored and 4.50 allowed per game
TeamLos Angeles DodgersSeason OPS: 0.652TeamSeattle MarinersSeason OPS: 0.674TeamLos Angeles DodgersTeam ERA: 3.55WHIP 1.14
TeamSeattle MarinersTeam ERA: 3.59WHIP 1.17
PlayerLuis CastilloSeattle Mariners starting pitcher: RHPProbable, not fully confirmed
PlayerLos Angeles DodgersLineup status: 0 players; projectedPlayerSeattle MarinersLineup status: 0 players; projectedPlayerRoster availabilityActive roster alerts: Seattle Mariners 7; Los Angeles Dodgers 11 Feature contributions and family probabilities are available inside each market’s full analysis.MARKET MOVEMENT
FanDuel and DraftKings
DraftKings · Batter RbisUnder +0.5
-252 → -40636 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter HitsOver +1.5
+184 → +1944 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter HitsUnder +1.5
-249 → -2634 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter HitsOver +0.5
-265 → -22332 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter HitsUnder +0.5
+195 → +16632 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter RbisOver +0.5
+127 → +27636 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter Total BasesOver +1.5
-118 → +14722 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Batter Total BasesUnder +1.5
-112 → -19622 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher StrikeoutsOver +4.5
-131 → -1142 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTDraftKings · Pitcher StrikeoutsUnder +4.5
+103 → -1112 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 12:19 PM EDTFanDuel · TotalsUnder +9.5
-120 → -1225 captures · latest Jul 28, 2026, 11:42 AM EDTFanDuel · H2h
No qualifying props for this game
The automatic prop workflow will populate this section when FanDuel and DraftKings offer complete two-sided markets.
Prop probabilities are FanDuel/DraftKings no-vig market estimates, not trained individual-player projections.
Seattle Mariners
Projected
Los Angeles Dodgers
Projected
Research and audit boundariesThe champion still controls selection ranking and suggested units. The research ensemble does not enable official publishing or place wagers. Weather and unsupported advanced metrics remain visibly unconnected rather than estimated.
Generated Jul 28, 2026, 5:47 PM EDT · 8_7_1_game_intelligence_stabilized7C-B PREGAME MONITOR
No frozen recommendation
EdgeBoard has no frozen model recommendation for this game.
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